Weekly review for: 18 - 22. 06.12
Euro: On Monday, the euro grew against almost all its competitors after the result of preliminary estimates indicated the victory of the conservative party "New Democracy "in parliamentary elections in Greece. The "New Democracy" party is the supporter of compliance agreements with international lenders, programs of financial support of the country and the course of economic reforms. The EUR / USD pair opened the earlier Asian session with gap up and moved higher to $1.2745 updating its monthly high. However, there were still concerns on the situation with the banking system in Spain, where the amount of bad loans in April jumped to 152.74 million Euros which is an increase of 8.72 % compared with 8.37% of March's. The EUR / USD pair declined to the level of $ 1.2618 this day.
Tuesday's report of Economic Sentiment in a business sphere in Germany derived from conducted by ZEW institute survey recorded a decrease to the level of -16.9 points versus forecasted 2.3points. The Economic Sentiment in a business sphere in Europe as a whole was also disappointed; the value there dropped to -20.1 points compared with -2.4 for the previous month. The result of the Spain auction revealed that Spain attracted 3.039 billion Euros for 12 and 18 months bonds with target of 3 billion Euros. The average yield, however, increased above 5%, which is considered as a high level. The pair dropped to a level of $1.2567 at the beginning of the session where it found a significant support. The pressure on the euro on Thursday had a weak result of the report on business activity in the industrial sector in Germany and the Euro zone as a whole, which was below forecasts. In details, the German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing and the German Purchasing Manager Index Services dropped in June to 44.7 vs. forecasted 45.2 and 50.3 vs. forecasted 51.5 values respectively. The speculations that the results of audit of the Spanish banks would be much worse than market expectations meaning by this, that the amount of the recently approved financial assistance of 100 billion Euro for Spain will not be enough for covering all expenses, also put pressure on the currency.
As the result, the EUR / USD pair traded dropped to the area of $1.2605. The EUR / USD pair continued falling to the level of $1.2525 on information that the Moody's Rating Agency downgraded the credit ratings of the largest major banks.
U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar continued to fall on Tuesday on expectations of investors that the currency would fell against most traded currencies this week. The fact of started this day the two-day meeting of the FOMC where the new possible measures of quantitative easing would be in focus caused some pressure on the dollar. Demand for the dollar was limited because many market participants were awaited to hear an announcement about new measures like a new round of quantitative easing for stimulating the United States economic growth. However, by the end of the week the demand for the currency has increased due to the falling stock indices and growing of negative market sentiment.
British Pound: The pound started to lose its position falling against the dollar after the published statistics recorded a decrease in the Core Consumer Price Index in May to the level of 2.2% (y / y), compared with an expected value of 2.3% and in April's value of 2.1%. The report on Consumer Price Index of May was also negative; the value fell to the level of 2.8% (y / y) vs. forecasted 3.0%. Al these results thus telling about the reducing of inflation in UK might give the Central Bank of England more options for providing additional measures for stimulating the economy. On the backdrop of publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England the pound steeply fell against the dollar yet quickly rebounded after. The published protocol showed that the number of committee members who advocate for increased program of asset purchases has increased. There were also economic statistics on the UK labor market published this week, which had not any significant impact on the British currency trading dynamics. The Claimant Count resulted 4.9% and the Unemployment Rate recorded 8.2 % as it was expected. The negative came from the published report of Jobless Claims Change which recorded an increase in the number of jobless claims applications for employment by 8.1K, while was expected a decline by 3.1K. The GBP / USD pair closed this week, reaching $ 1.5577 area.
Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen rose on Tuesday on the background of rising demand for save heaven assets in anticipation of the outcome of the G20 leaders meeting in Mexico. The meeting was primarily devoted for discussion about the debt crisis in the euro zone. After a brief recovery on the background of the Fed decision the yen resumed its decline against other traded currencies. The reason for the continuation of the downtrend was information that the Japanese lawmakers were close to reach an agreement on tax measures aimed to the lowering rate of the national currency. The yen continued to decline after the published information which revealed that the percentage of lawmakers in the leading party in Japan who voted for taking additional measures for stimulating the economy has increased. The yen continued to weaken against its competitors. The USD / JPY pair reached the Y80.50 on Friday.
New Zealand dollar: The New Zealand dollar fell on the background of publication of the government report which recorded the country's current account deficit over the past 3 months at 4.8% of GDP, against 4.2 % in the previous quarter. At the same time, the Gross Domestic Product showed a growth at the first quarter of 2012 (YoY) to the 2.4% versus forecasted 1.3% and leaded market participants to open buy positions on currency. The New Zealand economy grew for the last quarter on the fastest pace in five years. The value rose by 1.1% compare with the previous quarter when it grew by 0.4%. The New Zealand dollar rose after this publication. However, its growth was limited due to the also published reports from China the outcome of which was negative. The preliminary manufacturing PMI index provided by HSBC reached the mark of 48.1, against 48.4 in May thus continued its decline for the eighth consecutive month.
Weekly TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for 25 - 29.06, 2012
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét