Thứ ba, ngày 06 tháng ba năm 2012

Market review for 05.03.12: The negative outlook for China's GDP increased demand for safe haven currencies.


Forex Metal Daily Newsletter

Daily review for 05.03, 2012

The negative outlook for China's GDP increased demand for safe haven currencies.

 

Asian and European trading sessions:

 

 

Euro: During the Asian session the EUR / USD pair traded sideways between $ 1.3182 -$ 1.3212. The market expected today's statistics on the in Retail Sales in the Euro zone. At the beginning of the European session the Euro currency continued its downtrend and the EUR/USD couple declined to its daily low of $1.3159. The report on Retail Sales in the European Union, which came out better than expected (in January (+0.3% (MoM) and 0.0% (YoY)) did not influence much the trading dynamics of the European currency.

 

U.S. Dollar: The pullback of the European stock markets from their session lows put pressure on the U.S dollar at the end of the European trading session and greenback retreated from highs against major currencies.

 

British Pound: The GBP / USD couple during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5809 area. The report on the Purchasing Manager Index of the UK service sector put some pressure on British Pound today. The February's value PMI was below forecasts. The GBP / USD pair showed a minimum of $ 1.5784, at the beginning of session. However, the pair was able to restore and update the highs of $ 1.5872 level at the European session.

 

 

Japanese Yen: The yen continued to rise against all 16 major currencies. The USD / JPY during the Asian session the pair fell to its daily low of Y81.14. The main reason for this trend continuation was a publication of outlook for China's GDP, which confirmed China's GDP contraction for the 2012. In details, the Prime Minister of China, Mr. Wen Jiabao stated that it would be a decrease to 7.5 % from targeted 8% for the growth of national economy in 2012. This news triggered tendency of market participants do not to take risks today, therefore the demand for the currencies with the safe haven status had increased. Also, the technical factor of recent deep oversold of Japan currency provided support for that kind of trading dynamics.

 

Australian dollar: On the background of negative news regarding the slowdown of the growth of Chinese economy, the Australian dollar weakened against most major currencies. This situation also contributes for lowering demand for commodities for Australia.

 

 

 

American trading session:

 

Euro:  The Euro received support which came from the statements of the Minister of Finance of Greece, Mr. Venizelos who said that Greece would not need third rescue package after conducting a bond swap.

 

Gold: March Gold futures price fell today to 1695.4 dollars per troy ounce. The investors concerned for the economic development of China and the Euro zone. The price of gold was falling amid decreased demand for commodities today.

 

Oil: April WTI oil futures price were traded today in the range of 105.48 - 107.38 dollars per barrel.

 

 ___________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  for 06.03, 2012

 

EURUSD

The pair has declined to below Moving Average (100) and may break support 1.31674 and decline to 1.30277.

Resistance:  1.33143, 1.34882, 1.35984

Support:  1.31674, 1.30277, 1.28630

GBPUSD

The pair has drawn Head and Shoulders. MACD also has formed divergence that supports pair to start workout of the figure. The first aim is at 1.56722 if the pair declines below 1.58543.  

Resistance:  1.60322, 1.62050, 1.63316

Support:  1.58543, 1.56722, 1.54842

USDCHF

The pair has found support at 0.91079 and trying to rise to 0.92026.

Resistance:  0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949

Support:  0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418

USDJPY

The pair has reached Moving Average (500) at 81.399 and may roll back to 79.707.

Resistance: 81.399, 82.219, 83.065

Support:  80.438, 79.707, 79.070

AUDUSD

The pair has drawn Triple Top and testing Neckline support 1.06164. MACD divergence supports pair to start workout the figure. If 1.06164 is broken the pair will decline first to 1.05332.

Resistance: 1.07005, 1.07739, 1.08413

Support: 1.06164, 1.05332, 1.04407

 


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Thứ hai, ngày 05 tháng ba năm 2012

Forex-Metal Weekly: Market review. Technical analysis.


Forex Metal Newsletter

In this issue:

    1. Weekly market review from Forex-Metal.
    2. Weekly technical analysis
    3. Get a 35% trading bonus when you open a new account.
    4. Representatives Wanted!

Weekly review for 27.02 - 2.03, 2012

  

Euro: In the beginning of the week the euro tried to accelerate during the second half of Asian trading session and continued it's a seven-day gain, the longest gain since 2010. As we noticed before, the trigger for that increase was the report the People's Bank of China which confirm Bank's intends to make an additional contribution for the International Monetary Fund. However, during the European trading session, the euro's attempted to reach the new daily highs. The EUR / USD pair fell to lows of $ 1.3377.

The G20 meeting decided not to increase the European Rescue Fund. The Euro fell after this publication. Also, during the American session the European currency was pressured by the report of S&P credit rating agency, which reduced the outlook for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from stable to negative.

On Tuesday the EUR / USD pair strengthened during the Asian session to the level of $1.3451 on positive anticipations of the second three -year operation LTRO for providing unlimited liquidity to European banks by the ECB for 3 years term with the annual rate of 1%.  The EUR / USD pair rose to the area of $ 1.3450.

The EUR / USD pair almost reached a three-month high again at the level of $1.3470. The support for that growth was provided by the decision of ECB to allocate 500 billion euro for European banks on Wednesday.

On Wednesday at the beginning of the Asian trading session, the currency slightly grew on the background of the following publication of second three -year LTRO program for providing unlimited liquidity to European banks by the ECB for a term of 3 years with a annual rate of 1% . The EUR / USD pair climbed again to its highest level since the beginning of this year, $1.3485 area. After the results of LTRO program, which supported the market's expectations, the EUR / USD couple rapidly dropped. The market participants were taking profits after the recent growth of the currency on the background of starting LTRO program. According to the published information, the ECB provided to the European banks the amount of 529,531 billion euro. The EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3426.

The Euro currency suffered a very sharp sell-off to the lows of $1.3320 and did not even pull back. The market participants were not only taking profits on long positions on this currency but also entering in short positions on the background of speech of Mr. Bernanke who did not support the expectations that the Fed will take new measures to strengthen the economy.

On Thursday the employment report in Euro-Zone had a negative impact on the trading dynamics of the Euro currency. It recorded a rise in unemployment in the region to the level of 10.7% in January. As a result, the EUR / USD pair fell into the region of $ 1.3305 during the early Asian session. The demand for the euro was also limited due to an anticipation of the meeting in Brussels. On Thursday and Friday the European leaders and finance ministers met together in order to complete the organization of the second aid package to Greece.

By the end of the week as a result of the European leaders summit, the European currency was not  supported as the Czech Republic and the UK refused to sign the agreement on the unification and reforming of the fiscal  policies.  On Friday the EUR/USD traded at the support level of 1,3200.

U.S. Dollar: At the beginning of the week the dollar Index was showing the negative dynamics at both sessions. The market participants also expected the good news of macroeconomic data from the U.S.

On Wednesday in anticipation of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech in Congress, the dollar weakened against almost all major currencies. It was expected that Bernanke, in spite of recently published good news of the U.S. economic, would confirm the continuation of the easy monetary policy that was declared on January 25.

 

On Thursday the demand for the U.S. dollar on early Asian session was supported by the comments of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who confirmed an improvement in the U.S. labor market, thus significantly reduced the chances of a new round of QE. During the European session, however, the U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies in anticipation of the publication of report on manufacturing purchasing manager's index, ISM by the Institute for Supply Management, USA, the economists' forecasts on which were positive.

The dollar fell against almost all its competitors after report showed a decrease in amount of Initial Jobless Claims, which recorded 351K, compared forecasted 355K.

British Pound: On Monday the GBP/USD couple copied the trading dynamics of EUR /USD pair. It was trading within the range of $1.5878 to $1.5832 during both trading sessions.

On the next day the GBP / USD pair traded mostly in upward trend. During the European session the couple showed a growth to $1.5833level. The pound was supported by the report on the index of retail sales from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The February's value of this index resulted an improvement and was much better than forecasts.             

Nevertheless, on Friday the strengthening of the dollar and the drop of the euro pushed the sterling down to the level of $1,5815.

Japanese Yen: On Monday the Yen was gaining positive momentum due to its oversold factor as well as of covering some short positions which were taken on this currency more than a week ago. The positive overall background caused by signs of an improvement in the situation with the debt crisis in Europe and the economic redevelopment of the United States, also supported for the currency dynamics. The USD / JPY pair stepped back from its high's in more than 100 points to lows of Y80.305 at the end of European trading session.

The Yen continued its growth against all currencies on the speculations about further increasing of oil prices and not yet solved Europe's debt crisis. The USD / JPY pair fell to Y80.15 level.

On Friday against the background of the US dollar strengthening the yen tried to reach the 81,70 level.

Australian dollar / New-Zealand Dollar:  The Australian and New Zealand dollars showed mostly negative trading dynamics on the background of the published information, that the Standard & Poor's international rating agency downgraded Greece's credit rating to SD (selective default).

The Australian currency rose against almost all major currencies after the publication of the Retail Sales report, which showed growth to the four-month highs. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Retail Sales, as it was expected, increased in January in comparison with December by 0.3% to 20.95 billion Australian dollars. These were precisely matched the forecasts of economic specialists.

The New Zealand dollar also grew after the publication of New Zealand National Bank, which recorded in its conducted survey that the business confidence increased up to five-month high in February.

These high-yield currencies rose after the publication of the report on Capital Spending by Japanese companies. The report showed the highest growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 7.6% versus forecasted -6.5%.

Though on Friday the dollar growth, which started during the speech of the FRS leader, stopped this dynamics and returned the prices for the following ranges: 1,0605-1,0805 and 0,8255-0,8405 accordingly.

 


  

Weekly technical analysis for 5 - 9. 03, 2012

 

EURUSD

The MACD supports pair to rise. The pair may decline to Fibonacci before continue rising at 1.30820.

Resistance:  1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130

Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280

GBPUSD

The pair has reached the Moving Average (100) at 1.59962 and moving back to 1.56615. 

Resistance:  1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504

Support:  1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344

USDCHF

If the pair stays below 0.91074 the pair will decline to the Fibonacci level 38% at 0.88434.

Resistance:  0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597

Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723

USDJPY

The pair is trading below Moving Average (100) at 82.245. This level is still the aim for the pair inspite the starting corrections. 

Resistance:  83.330, 86.836, 90.909

Support:  80.244, 76.535, 73.126

AUDUSD

The pair couldn't break 1.07806 and rolling back to 1.05810.

Resistance:  1.07806, 1.09604, 1.11831

Support:  1.05810, 1.03847, 1.01873

 


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Thứ năm, ngày 01 tháng ba năm 2012

Market review for 29.02.12: The LTRO program began. The EUR and commodities suffered a big sell-off today.


Forex Metal Daily Newsletter

Daily review for 29.02, 2012

The LTRO program began. The EUR and commodities suffered a big sell-off today.

 

Asian and European trading sessions:

 

Euro: The Euro currency had a spectacular both trading sessions today. At the beginning of the Asian trading session, the currency slightly grew on the background of the following publication of second three -year LTRO program for providing unlimited liquidity to European banks by the ECB for a term of 3 years with a annual rate of 1% . The EUR / USD pair climbed again to its highest level since the beginning of this year, $1.3485 area. After the results of LTRO program, which supported the market's expectations, the EUR / USD couple rapidly dropped. The market participants were taking profits after the recent growth of the currency on the background of starting LTRO program. According to the published information, the ECB provided to the European banks the amount of 529,531 billion euro. The EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3426.

 

 

U.S. Dollar: On anticipation of today's speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress, the dollar weakened against almost all major currencies. It was expected that Bernanke,  in spite of recently published good news of the U.S. economic, will confirm the continuation of the easy monetary policy that has declared on January 25.

 

 

Australian Dollar: The Australian currency rose against almost all major currencies after the publication of the Retail Sales report, which showed growth to the four-month highs. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Retail Sales, as it was expected, increased in January in comparison with December by 0.3% to 20.95 billion Australian dollars. These were precisely matched the forecasts of economic specialists.

 

 

New Zealand dollar: The New Zealand dollar also grew after the publication of  New Zealand National Bank, which recorded in its conducted survey that the business confidence increased up to five-month high in February.

 

 

American trading session:

 

Euro: The Euro currency suffered a very sharp sell-off to the lows of $1.3320 and did not even pull back. The market participants were not only taking profits on long positions on this currency but also entering in short positions on the background of speech of Mr. Bernanke who did not support the expectations that the Fed will take new measures to strengthen the economy.

 

Gold: The Gold had a nasty spill as well, dropping from 1783 down to 1686, closing at the lows for the day fell. It dropped after a speech by Fed chief Mr. B. Bernanke, who did not confirm the probability of QE3 in the short term.

 

Oil: After the report which showed that U.S. oil inventories rose to their highest level of more than five months the Oil continued its three-day decline. The cost of April futures on WTI fell to 104.83 dollars per barrel.

 

________________________________________________________________________ 

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for 01.03, 2012

  

EURUSD

The pair has fallen to support level at 1.33143 and may return to 1.34882.

Resistance:  1.34882, 1.35984, 1.37486

Support:  1.33143, 1.31674, 1.30277

GBPUSD

The pair is trying to break Moving Average (500)  1.59093 and will try to raise to 1.60322.

Resistance:  1.60322, 1.62050, 1.63316

Support:  1.58543, 1.56722, 1.54842

USDCHF

The pair returned to Moving Average (200) 0.90517 and may continue declining first to 0.89635.

Resistance:  0.91079, 0.92026, 0.93069

Support:  0.89635, 0.88418, 0.87214

USDJPY

The pair has reached Moving Average (500) at 81.399 and may roll back to 79.707.

Resistance: 81.399, 82.219, 83.065

Support:  80.438, 79.707, 79.070

AUDUSD

The pair has broken 1.07739 and aiming to 1.08413.

Resistance: 1.08413, 1.09112, 1.09782

Support: 1.07739, 1.07005, 1.06164

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Useful Links

Discuss currency news with other traders in FX2Day forum: https://fx2day.net/forum/mvnforum/index
Download free demo platform: https://forex-metal.com/home/download
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Watch our new commercial at YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0fQEydv-3M


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