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Weekly review for 16 - 20.04, 2012 Euro: The Euro's trading dynamics were depended on the results of auctions of the Spanish and German governments bonds on Monday. Against the background of rising concerns of possible further spread of the debt crisis in Europe, with the center in Spain, the 10-year Spanish government bonds' yield exceeded by 6.15% for the first time since December 2011. The EUR / USD pair showed a low below the level of $ 1.3000, its monthly low against the dollar in spite of decline of German bonds' yield which reached a new record low of 1.632%.On Tuesday, the Euro fell against most major 16 currencies amid worries about the future situation of sovereign debt in Spain. The report on CPI index of Euro Zone showed an increase adding 0.01% to 1.6% versus forecasted values of 1.5% in March on YoY basis. Also, the Survey conducted by ZEW institute for the Euro zone's economy expectation recorded an improvement reaching 13.1 values. As the result the EUR/USD couple strengthened to $1.3172 area. The reason why the Euro fell against its competitors on Wednesday was again the increase of the Spanish and Italian governments' bonds' yields. In fact, the yield of 10- year bond of Spain went to 5.87% against the previous 5.71% and the yield of 10 -year bonds of Italy to 5.52% against of earlier 5.40%. Moreover, the pressure on the Euro currency had the fact that Italy's economy growth, the forecasts of which were revised that day, showed that the growth in 2012 will decrease by 1.2% against the previous estimation of -0.5%. As for 2013 year forecasts, the economists assume that the economic growth would increase by 0.5 % against the previous forecast of 0.3 %.On Thursday's European session, the Euro fell against of its competitors amid the information which revealed that the Greek government postponed the plan of recapitalization of the Greek Banks. The published forecasts showed that the German's economy would demonstrate an increase by 0.9% versus previous 0.8% for this year. Also, the results of auctions had better than expected outcome; the Spain attracted 2,541 Euros with the planned 1.5-2.5 billion Euros, the France placed 7,973 billion Euros versus 7-8 billion Euros planned. However, all these positive factors could not provide any support for the currency's trading dynamics, yet prevented the EUR / USD couple of falling below $1.3070 level. US Dollar: The dollar fell against major currencies on Monday. The pressure on the currency had a Friday's report of University of Michigan which presented that the index of consumer sentiment in the U.S. in April unexpectedly fell to 75.7 points from 76.2 points in March versus the analysts' expectations of growth to 76.5 points. In addition, manufacturing activity in the New York region slowed to 5-month low, due to a sharp slowdown in sales (6.56 vs. prev. 18) and reduction in the number of outstanding orders. The decision of China of widening the trading range for the Yuan against the U.S. dollar by 0.5% to 1% with respect to exchange rate which was previously set by the regulator for increasing flexibility of RMB exchange rate pressured the U.S. dollar trading dynamics. The demand for the U.S. dollar was limited on Wednesday amid the published on Tuesday information which was provided by the International Monetary Fund which raised its forecasts for global economic growth. The forecast was raised to 3.5 percent compared previously presented in January 2012 which predicted that the world economic growth in 2012 will be 3.3 percent. Also, the forecast of 2013 was raised from 4.0 to 4.1 percent. As for the Thursday's news, the Exciting Home sales declined in March by 2.6 % to 4.48 million and were significantly worse than the forecasts of analysts, who projected growth in sales to 4.6 million. The Initial Job Claims also showed an increase and were up to 386,000 versus economy experts' predictions of decrease by14, 000. These were quite volatility sessions for the greenback. British Pound: The Pound grew on Tuesday today on positive result of the annual CPI index which showed that the UK inflation rose for the first time since September 2011. In March, inflation accelerated for the first time in UK over the past six months rising by 3.5% against 3.4 % in February on YoY basis beating the forecasts of economists who had expected it at 3.4%. The GBP/USD pair grew to $1.5966 area. On Wednesday, before the publication of the bunch of macroeconomic statistics, the GBP / USD pair was traded in a narrow range between $ 1.5916 -$ 1.5941 levels. The published statistics provided substantial support to the Pound. In details, the result of the protocol of last meeting of the Bank of England which was dedicated to monetary policy showed that the likelihood of further stimulating the economy had decreased. Also, the support for the British pound had a report of labor market, which suddenly recorded better than expected results, the Claimant Count rate in March fell to 4.9 % from 5%, 0% and the unemployment rate of February dropped to 8.3 % from 8.4 %. The GBP / USD reacted positively rocketing into the region of $ 1.5990 where it remained traded and consolidated for the next move above $ 1.6000 level. All in all, this was quite positive for the British currency. Japanese Yen: On Tuesday, the yen fell against all 16 most traded currencies amid rising demand for risky assets and recovering of Worlds Stock markets after their three day decline. The USD/ JPY pair went to test the level of Y80.74 at end of European session. The pair continued its uptrend on Wednesday on the background of growing Asian stock markets in anticipation of the publication of data on the labor market in the U.S. The USD / JPY couple rose into the region of Y81, 72 on the statements of the Bank of Japan's representatives who mentioned the Bank's readiness to change its monetary policy for maintaining the economic growth. However, the publication of the report on trade deficit for the last month provided support for the Yen. The trade deficit in March recorded the value of 82.6 billion yen compared with 29.4 billion yen in the previous month. The pair pulled back to the level of Y81.4. Australian dollar: The Australian dollar suffered a sell off on Tuesday continuing its three-day decline against the U.S amid the statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia which mentioned a slowdown in inflation in the country. However, on rising demand for risky assets and recovering of Worlds Stock markets the currency was able to pull back sharply and by the end of the day jumped higher than the high of the previous day. Swiss Franc: The traders tested the strength of level of 1.20 of EUR / CHF pair on Monday, which was designated by the Swiss National Bank as for limitation the growth of the Swiss currency. The demand for the safe haven currencies like Swiss Franc increased that day on the backdrop of negative situation on the market due to the worries of a continuation of the debt crisis in Europe. Canadian Dollar: The Bank of Canada on Tuesday's meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1%, however, mentioning that the rate could be increased in the future as inflation and the Canadian economy has the potential to exceed the forecasts. The Canadian Dollar showed maximum growth in four months against the U.S. dollar sharply strengthening to the level of $0.9866 within 2 hours move.
Weekly technical analysis for 23 - 27. 04, 2012
EURUSD The pair is trading around Neckline of Double Top. If 1.30579 is broken the end of the figure maybe expected at 1.27572. Resistance: 1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130 Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280 
GBPUSD The pair may roll back to the Moving Average (100) at 1.59317. Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652 Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532 
USDCHF The pair has declined to support level at 0.91074. If the pair stays above this level the pair will rise to 0.93264. Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031 Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633 
USDJPY The pair is trading below Moving Average (100) at 82.245. The pair is aiming to test support at 80.244. Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909 Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126 
AUDUSD The pair is aiming to decline to the median line at 1.01873. Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806 Support: 1.01873, 1.00592, 0.97889 
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